Research

A Meridian-calibrated reading of market value versus aggregate on-chain cost basis, with upper regimes learned from the latest four-year record.

Three independently normalized cycle lenses — Mayer, four-year trend and Puell — combined with one equal vote each into a Meridian-native score.

All of BTC price history fit to one log-log line — a slowly rising fair value with a corridor of support and mania around it, and today read as a deviation from trend.

Exchange balances as a tide gauge — how much of the supply sits on exchanges, the daily in/out flows, and the net drift read as accumulation versus distribution.

Miner economics as a valuation floor — thermocap (cumulative dollars paid to miners), the price multiple above it, hash-ribbon capitulation signals and the fee share of the security budget.

Network value against network usage — market cap fit to active addresses in log-log space, with today read as the premium or discount to the utility fair value the fit implies.

Speculative intensity — daily spot turnover as a share of market cap, blended with on-chain transfer momentum, ranked against the last two years to read heat from apathy.

Cycle position from price alone — one-year momentum and the drawdown from the rolling high, each ranked against four years of its own history and blended into a single 0–100 bearing.

The holder base as the fundamental — how many addresses hold a balance, how fast that base grows, and what the market is paying in network value for each one of them.

The namesake dial — every scored model averaged into one composite cycle-heat trace over full history, with the dispersion that says how much the models agree and the persistence of the current regime.

The halving clock — annualized issuance stepping down every four years, the position inside the current epoch, and the price path of every epoch since 2012 overlaid on one day-in-epoch axis.

Blockspace demand — daily USD fee spend and fee per transaction, each ranked against two years of their own history and blended into a single 0–100 read of what users actually pay to use the chain.

The volatility regime from price alone — the realized-vol term structure, its four-year percentile, and the squeeze episodes where compression historically resolved into expansion, direction unknown.

Risk-adjusted trend quality — the rolling one-year Sharpe ratio of holding BTC, percentile-ranked against four years of its own history into a 0–100 heat read.

Conditional forward returns — for every day in history, the composite heat band it sat in and what the next 90 days and year actually did, tabulated per band. Historical description, never a forecast.